AGP Executive Report

Energy & M&A: Sembcorp has completed its acquisition of Alinta Energy, adding a 3.4GW operating portfolio and 10.4GW development pipeline, while keeping Alinta’s brand and management team. Resources build-out: Ora Banda Mining awarded GR Engineering a $233m EPC contract for a 3.0mtpa process plant at Davyhurst, supporting its expansion plan. Insurance & claims: Aon promoted Helene Madell to global broking centre CEO; Munich Re Specialty appointed Angus Kench as head of commercial claims for Australia. Regulation & consumer law: The ACCC fined Hismile $138,600 over misleading social media advertising claims. Intermediaries: Regis picked up 24 authorised representatives after Sphere Insurance Group entered liquidation. Markets driver: US-Iran deal talk lifted Asian stocks and pushed oil lower on hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening. Tax & housing: Proposed federal CGT/negative gearing changes are under scrutiny, with investors warning of complexity and uncertainty. Business growth funding: Scaleup Mediafund launched a $25m fourth media-for-equity fund for early-stage Australian companies.

G7 Protests Turn Violent in Geneva: Protesters set a Tesla alight and smashed windows at a UN office as anger flared ahead of the G7 summit in France, with police using tear gas and demonstrators targeting symbols of “concentrated political and economic power.” Indigenous Procurement Crackdown Call: Former Indigenous affairs minister Ken Wyatt says the federal Indigenous Procurement Policy should be shut down if “black cladding” rorts continue, arguing token Indigenous joint ventures let capacity sit with non-Indigenous principals. UK Moves to Restrict Kids’ Social Media: The UK plans to bar under-16s from “high-risk” social media features and restrict romantic/sexual AI chatbots, echoing Australia’s approach while adding extra controls. Energy Policy Pressure on Gas Exports: Labor sends senior officials to Asia to manage concerns over a looming Australian gas-reservation scheme that could affect LNG supply commitments and regional energy security. Renewables Jobs at Risk in Wind Setback Fight: Modelling warns a proposed two-kilometre wind setback in Victoria could jeopardise billions in regional investment and tens of thousands of jobs. Housing and Investment Signals: Reports highlight Chinese investment in Australian housing falling sharply, while debate continues over migration and housing affordability pressures.

Energy Transition for Regional Industry: A Shepparton forum, “Unlocking Energy for Australia’s Foodbowl,” says decarbonisation pressure is already here and the real question is how local sites capture benefits from new energy and tech. Data Centres & Power Bills: Data-centre operators argue their growth can accelerate Australia’s energy transition, but critics warn the sector could lift eastern-seaboard demand to 6% by 2030 and worsen emissions and household costs. Industrial Relations: NRMA Patrol members begin a 48-hour strike over a pay claim, escalating the first industrial action in 23 years, with rallies planned as the union pushes a 17% rise over four years. Housing & Migration: Immigration Minister Tony Burke says big migration cuts would damage the economy and undermine housing and health targets, arguing intake levels must be “finely tuned.” RBA Watch: Economists expect the Reserve Bank to hold the cash rate at 4.35% this week, though further mortgage pressure may still come later. Cybercrime & Scams: Australia-linked reporting highlights transnational cybercrime growth, while Cambodia’s crackdown leaves scam victims homeless and stranded. Building Security Market: Victoria’s security door and screening demand is forecast to stay strong, with market analyses pointing to sustained growth through the decade.

AI and jobs debate: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says AI’s impact on entry-level white-collar work has been less than feared, pushing tech leaders to recalibrate the “job wipeout” narrative. Energy transition: Bellevue Gold hit a milestone by running its mine on 100% renewable power for 155 straight hours, using solar, wind and battery storage—another signal of how electrification and renewables are reshaping operating costs. Markets and macro: Australia’s labour productivity fell 0.6% in Q1, while commentary flags cost pressures and a fragile outlook for households and business confidence. Trade and policy: Major tax and customs reforms are in focus, alongside debate over CGT and negative gearing changes that could shift investment flows. Business and tech infrastructure: HTAG Analytics says its Australian property intelligence is now discoverable by AI agents worldwide via the MCP Registry, aiming to make local data easier to use in automated decision-making. Transport and travel: Etihad and Condor sealed a strategic partnership for new Bangkok services from Abu Dhabi. World Cup business angle: Vancouver’s matchday spotlight continues, with Australia’s tournament schedule driving local watch-party and spending activity.

AUKUS Scrutiny: Australia’s AUKUS Public Inquiry in Melbourne drew public pushback, with former foreign minister Gareth Evans arguing the deal mainly serves US needs and embeds Australia into US command structures. Fuel Costs: Energy Minister Chris Bowen says the fuel excise cut and GST rebate are still set to end June 30, even as supplies are at record levels—so motorists may still face higher bowser prices. Tax Overhaul: Major Budget changes are reshaping Australia’s investment rules, including a shift away from the 50% CGT discount, tighter negative gearing for new builds, and new deductions/offsets for working Australians. Super Pressure on Sole Traders: New research finds many sole traders are deferring super to pay daily bills, raising retirement risk for a large self-employed cohort. Work & Gig Rights: New Zealand’s government backed the US against gig-worker protections at the ILO, drawing Green Party criticism and renewed calls for stronger contractor rights. Shipping Safety: The ATSB report on a near-grounding at Port Hedland points to an erroneous engine shutdown switch and highlights fleet-wide safety changes. Office Furniture Boom: Queensland is forecast to be the fastest-growing state for office furniture demand as workplaces keep upgrading fit-outs and ergonomics.

Housing & Cost of Living: Australia’s rental market is tightening as investors offload properties ahead of tax changes, driving a listings boom but fewer rentals; Neoval data shows sharp annual drops in rental listings, with Sydney down 9.8% annually and 1.5% in May, raising fears for renters’ choice. Tax & Housing Policy: The shift is linked to budget-driven behaviour changes, with markets now favouring buyers as auction sales lag. Energy Prices: Motorists may not see much relief from any US-Iran peace deal, with analysts saying the fuel excise cut is likely to end from July, potentially adding around 32 cents a litre if reversed. Climate Risk: NOAA has confirmed El Niño is underway and could become one of the strongest on record, boosting odds of extreme heat, floods, droughts and fires—an issue for Australia’s weather-sensitive economy. Tech & Business Disruption: Meta suffered a major outage hitting Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, disrupting ads tools and business platforms. Critical Minerals & Geopolitics: The US House passed the DOMINANCE Act to counter China’s rare-earth processing dominance, aiming to build allied supply chains that include Australia. Shipping Decarbonisation: CSL and Adbri took delivery of MV Yampu, a battery-powered self-unloading bulk carrier designed to cut diesel use and emissions for limestone logistics in South Australia.

Productivity Watch: Australia’s productivity fell 0.6% in Q1 2026 as hours worked rose 0.9% while output lagged, with the Productivity Commission warning the country is “working harder and longer” without matching gains. Energy & Investment: The same Productivity Commission links the productivity slide to the shift from coal to renewables, urging governments to prioritise efficient, cost-effective energy spending. ASX Markets: Risk-on sentiment lifted the ASX, with the S&P/ASX 200 up 1.85% as traders priced in a potential US-Iran peace deal, oil slid and gold bounced; miners and consumer stocks led. Healthcare Turnaround: ASX healthcare is showing signs of recovery heading into June catalysts, with CSL and Cochlear rebounding after earlier pressure. Corporate Moves: Amplify acquired Melbourne creative agency Snack Drawer, while M&C Saatchi cut at least 20 Australian roles after losing major clients. Labour & Policy: Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale says he will phase out PALM and RSE labour mobility schemes to tackle youth unemployment. Tourism Momentum: New Zealand reported international visitor numbers up 8% in April, with Australia and China among the biggest contributors.

Productivity squeeze: Australia’s labour productivity fell 0.6% in the March quarter while hours worked rose 0.9%, leaving growth “from bad to worse” and undercutting the case for faster, smarter economic gains. Crime-as-a-service: A parliamentary inquiry will examine how dark web marketplaces and encrypted tools let criminal networks outsource scams, ransomware and even physical attacks—making disruption harder for police. AUKUS jobs pitch: AUKUS All-Party Parliamentary Group chair says new undersea drone plans strengthen deterrence now and could bring domestic “dividends” via defence supply-chain funding. World Cup betting push: Flutter expects strong customer additions as the FIFA World Cup starts, expanding prediction markets ahead of the tournament. Cyber and espionage risk: Five Eyes warns of Chinese espionage using LinkedIn recruitment to target people with access to classified information. Energy and trade pressure: UNCTAD highlights how critical minerals supply chains are concentrated—especially processing—raising geopolitical and industrial-policy stakes for countries like Australia. Biosecurity and packaging: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal cockroaches in a major raid, while Z1RO is turning fallen leaves and other biomass into moulded fibre packaging to cut reliance on plastics and virgin wood.

NDIS Clash: State and territory disability ministers have warned Labor’s NDIS overhaul could leave people without services, saying they’ve “made no agreement” to deliver like-for-like support when participants are exited. Retail Expansion: Super Retail Group (Supercheap Auto, Rebel, BCF, Macpac) is planning a major five-year store push, targeting growth in under-served regional areas and new formats. Homelessness & Migration Debate: Editor Michelle Pini argues One Nation’s “illegal migrant” rhetoric is endangering homeless people, pointing to the case of a “non-resident” international student who died in Sydney’s CBD. Energy & Power Costs: The AEMC chair says electricity pricing reform is about a “consumer-driven future”, but the proposed shift in network tariff fixed charges is sparking fresh backlash from rooftop-solar and battery owners. Agriculture Under Pressure: ABARES forecasts farm profits could plunge as fertiliser, fuel and dry conditions bite, while strawberry growers warn of a “death by a thousand cuts” from rising costs. Defence Supply Chain: IntelliDesign has won a contract to supply electronics assemblies for Hanwha Defence Australia’s AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicle program. Solar Returns Watch: New solar market studies say returns are increasingly driven by location and revenue capture, not just build costs, as curtailment and capture rates worsen in saturated grids. ASX Tech Picks: Commentary highlights Megaport as a connectivity play beyond Xero and WiseTech, as investors look for growth in cloud and data-centre infrastructure.

Australia–UAE Trade Finance: Etihad Credit Insurance and Export Finance Australia signed an MoU in Prague to boost UAE-Australia financing for energy, infrastructure and digital projects. Superannuation Tax Hit: Australia’s super fund sector became the nation’s biggest taxpayer, paying $1.7b in 2025. Business Confidence Watch: NAB says cost and price pressures eased in May and confidence improved, but sentiment is still negative and margins remain under pressure. EV Charging Race: BYD is scaling a much faster charging network in China and pushing overseas, challenging Tesla’s Supercharger lead. Aviation Jobs & Demand: Emirates Group flagged new 2026 job openings globally, while Qatar Airways says demand is bouncing back despite Iran-related disruption. New Airport Milestone: Western Sydney International Airport is set for its first commercial passengers on October 25 with Jetstar and Qantas services. Health Policy Shock: AstraZeneca is pulling Zoladex from Australia’s PBS/private market from November, raising concerns for women needing breast cancer and endometriosis treatment. Cyber & Litigation: Norton Rose Fulbright reports rising corporate exposure to cybersecurity, data privacy and AI-related disputes. NZ Capital Markets Debate: OECD criticism of New Zealand’s shallow capital markets is reigniting calls for reforms to attract more companies and investment.

Industrial Relations: Inpex has gone to the Fair Work Commission seeking urgent orders to stop strike action at its Ichthys LNG site in Darwin, after unions flagged protected industrial action that could disrupt operations. Markets & FX: The Australian dollar held steady as investors weighed US-Iran tensions and awaited key US inflation data for clues on the Fed’s path. Energy & Critical Minerals: Nyrstar has secured a $105m federal-state lifeline for smelters in Port Pirie and Hobart, backing feasibility work tied to critical minerals and modernisation. Cyber & AI Security: BT became the first UK firm to join Anthropic’s Project Glasswing, aiming to bolster defences against AI-fuelled attacks. Transport Infrastructure: Sydney’s new Western Sydney Airport is set to open to passengers in October, promising 24-hour operations and more flight scheduling flexibility. Retail & Jobs: Seven Network is preparing for up to 200 redundancies across its media business, with cuts expected this week. Global Policy: Australia joined coordinated sanctions targeting extremist West Bank settler networks, drawing sharp criticism from Israel. EV Charging: Autel showcased grid-aware, fleet-focused EV charging tech at a Sydney seminar, including a charger designed to stabilise the grid. Business & Education: Three foreign universities—Bristol, York and UNSW—received approvals to set up campuses in India.

Sanctions Escalation: Australia joins the UK, Canada, France, Norway and New Zealand in fresh sanctions targeting West Bank settler individuals and networks, as governments accuse Israel-linked facilitation of violence and settlement expansion. Charity & Wills Push: Labor assistant minister Andrew Leigh is urging more Australians to leave bequests to charities, backing it with extra funding to align charity and corporate registers. Retail Pressure from Overseas Giants: Shippit says delivery costs are rising and global e-commerce players (Amazon, Temu, Shein) are taking more share, putting local retailers under pressure. Horticulture Code Crackdown: The ACCC hits WA growers and wholesalers Fruitico and Fresh Express with maximum penalties over alleged breaches of the Horticulture Code. Climate Policy Signals: COP31 co-leads Turkey and Australia unveil headline targets, led by electrification (“35 by 35”), plus waste and buildings goals. Business & Tech Partnerships: Pax8 will add inforcer to help MSPs standardise Microsoft 365 security and AI readiness; Meridian Group expands its HPE GreenLake service-provider partnership. Aussie Aviation Demand: Emirates says it won’t cut capacity despite the Iran war, and is preparing daily services to Berlin and Stuttgart. Child Safety Online: Canada moves toward a ban on social media for kids under 16, following Australia’s earlier rollout. Consumer Sentiment: Multiple reports point to worsening Australian consumer confidence and recession fears.

ASX Watch: The ASX 200 slipped 0.23% to 8,605.4 as miners and energy stocks weighed, while banks and parts of tech held up amid cautious global sentiment and RBA rate expectations. Consumer Pressure: Westpac and the Melbourne Institute put June consumer sentiment at 80.6, among the weakest in 50 years, with households deeply pessimistic about the Budget and finances. Rates & Housing: New ABS data shows dwelling values still rising (up 2.5% in the March quarter to $12.77tn), even as recession fears and rate pressure build. Big Tech & Policy: Meta is pushing back on Australia’s proposed news levy, arguing it breaches trade commitments, as regulators worldwide tighten scrutiny of online platforms. First Nations Finance: ANZ is investing in a two-year First Nations Foundation partnership to expand culturally grounded financial education and support hundreds more people. Energy Security Angle: A push for Australia to “shape the shifting global energy order” highlights looming gas supply risks and the need for a faster, smarter transition. Mining & Resources: Horizon Gold reported high-grade gold intercepts from RC drilling at its Gum Creek project, supporting growth beyond the current mine plan. Home & Risk: Perth pest firm Bug Busters marks 40 years and warns winter is a key termite expansion period, not a quiet season.

AUKUS Update: The US, UK and Australia expanded AUKUS with a deployment framework for US Virginia-class submarines in Western Australia and moves to streamline Australia’s planned acquisition of three boats, alongside faster cooperation on autonomous underwater systems, AI, cyber and electronic warfare. Markets & Rates: Asian markets slid after a tech-led Wall Street sell-off and renewed rate-hike fears, while the Australian dollar dipped to a two-month low as traders priced in more pressure on rates. Energy & Geopolitics: Oil jumped on renewed Iran-Israel strikes, with the Strait of Hormuz again in focus as shipping disruption risks ripple through global energy supplies. Digital Finance: Australia and the Philippines fintech sectors met in a mission backed by Austrade to push deeper cross-border digital finance and more interoperable, inclusive financial systems. Business & Investment: Ford says Ranger and Everest development will continue in Australia for at least another generation, while Azuria Water Solutions agreed to buy UK-based RSM Lining Supplies, keeping RSM’s Sydney and Melbourne sites. Policy & Regulation: Meta attacked Australia’s proposed news levy as breaching trade terms, as EU moves to boost homegrown cloud and AI also drew warnings from tech trade bodies. Local Life: Santa Clara World Cup match road closures are set to affect traffic and transit, with Australia playing in the schedule.

Trans-Tasman Pacific push: Australia and New Zealand pledged stronger support for Pacific Island supply chains and rising fuel costs, while deepening defence, trade and security cooperation under a renewed leaders’ partnership. Markets: The ASX 200 slipped 0.7% as miners and banks weighed, with Westpac down 1.2% and BHP down 2.5% amid softer commodity sentiment and cautious global risk. Housing affordability: Auction clearance rates fell to 51.1% across capitals, the lowest in five years, as budget changes and conflict-linked pressures push investors back—though renters are unlikely to see relief. Energy and prices: India’s LPG remains among the world’s cheapest despite global shocks, while BYD argues EVs can help blunt fuel-price volatility tied to Middle East disruptions. Tech and data centres: Asiaphos moved to buy a majority stake in a WA data-centre operator, and Singapore’s Wi‑Fi 7 adoption hit 25%—a sign of how fast connectivity upgrades are spreading. Policy and politics: Newspoll shows One Nation surging to 31% as Albanese leans into “the economy” message, while Victoria’s “Ditch the witch” billboard row adds heat to the political discourse. Trade and compliance: Meta again hit Australia’s proposed news bargaining tax, calling it a trade pact breach.

US-Iran shock and rates: Markets wobbled after fresh Strait of Hormuz tensions sent oil up nearly 8% and pushed Treasury yields higher, reviving “higher for longer” fears as the US jobs report beat forecasts. Australia macro pressure: The same global backdrop is hitting growth narratives, with Australia’s Q1 expansion flagged at just 0.3% as RBA hikes bite. Energy resilience push: Japan is doubling down on regional energy security with POWERR Asia and AZEC 2.0, explicitly tied to Hormuz-linked supply risks. Trade friction: The US is proposing new tariffs on 60 economies over forced-labour claims, drawing criticism that the move threatens trade rules and could ripple into global supply chains. LPG politics in India (regional cost signal): India’s domestic LPG price hike is being blamed on West Asia conflict, with debate over transparency and excise duty—another reminder of how geopolitics feeds household energy bills. Business spotlight: BizWest expands its digital news reach via Apple News, aiming to grow audiences through curated access.