AGP Executive Report

Markets Watch: ASX futures point to a modest open gain after Wall Street ended mixed, while the local market finished virtually flat as banking and gold helped offset weakness. Housing & Tax: A federal property-tax overhaul is starting to bite, with banks now forecasting declines and analysts warning of a potentially large correction in major cities. Energy & Resources: The Office of the Chief Economist lifted export earnings forecasts on stronger energy and gold prices, even as the longer-term outlook still softens. Climate Risk: The UN’s weather agency warns El Niño is set to strengthen quickly between July and September, raising the odds of extreme weather. Solar & Local Business: A new Perth solar installer guide ranks top performers using independent review data, spotlighting licensing and end-to-end service. Banking Security: Global IME Bank in Nepal rolled out instant account blocking via phone or app to help curb phishing and scam losses. Public Sector Tech: Atturra helped Wyndham City Council complete a major IT transformation onto a single TechnologyOne platform. Admin & Jobs: South Australia’s Zen Energy has entered administration after selling retail electricity supply, with supply to government facilities transitioning to AGL. Global Trade/Defence: Japan and India announced a roadmap after Modi–Takaichi talks, including defence and maritime cooperation and large private-sector deal commitments.

Data-centre power emissions: A new US report flags 74 proposed “behind-the-meter” gas plants for data centres could emit 662 million tonnes of greenhouse gases a year, as projects bypass grid-connection rules and speed through approvals. Digital infrastructure: In Australia and beyond, the data-centre boom is pushing demand for smarter management tools, with DCIM providers like Cormant-CS pitching scalable software for multi-site operations. Fintech expansion: LemFi has won UK FCA approval to buy Wealth8, moving from cross-border money tools into wealth-building and investing for customers across the UK, Europe, North America and Australia. Housing policy: Malaysia is offering a 10% home-purchase discount at AREC 2026, aimed at easing deposit pressure for buyers. Energy transition tech: Underground mining equipment makers are leaning into battery-electric and automation to cut risk and improve adoption underground. Corporate/market watch: Hyundai Australia’s boss has publicly accused BYD of “dumping” cars, arguing its growth isn’t sustainable.

Housing & markets: Australia’s shares wobbled as investors digested weak domestic housing signals and a hawkish RBA read-through, with the ASX 200 hovering near flat in thin trade. Currency & rates: The AUD and NZD held steady ahead of the US jobs report, while Australian data showed a surprise goods deficit. Property portals in court: REA and Domain are back in Federal Court over claims about misleading market-share and advertising impact—an expensive fight that matters for buyers and sellers. Banking awards: Commonwealth Bank was named Business Bank of the Year and CBA shares were described as resilient amid cost pressures. Corporate fraud crackdown: ASIC cancelled Capital Guard AU’s licence after it allegedly sold investors a fake “Macquarie” bond. AI & copyright pressure: Australian creatives urged Parliament to enforce copyright rules as they claim songs were used to train AI without consent. Deep tech funding: CoLabs opened a new Sydney wet-lab site and launched a lab-embedded pre-accelerator backed by LaunchVic. Security & expansion: Intelligent Monitoring Group agreed to buy ADT’s UK residential business for £180m, boosting recurring revenue.

Seafood Supply Chain & Consumer Rules: Australia’s new nationwide seafood labelling laws kick in from 1 July, requiring hospitality venues to clearly mark seafood as Australian, imported or mixed (A/I/M), with regulators set to pursue non-compliance. Housing & Cost of Living: New data points to a housing downturn that may need “decades” of falling prices to restore affordability, as clearance rates stay weak and the affordability gap barely shifts. AI & Workforces: A growing number of employers that cut jobs for AI are rehiring after automation struggles in real-world service and engineering, including examples from major banks and manufacturers. Big Tech & Cloud Investment: Google says it has topped its $1bn Africa investment target and announced new cloud, connectivity and applied AI initiatives at its Africa Cloud Summit. Regional Business & Migration Pressure: A Queensland community group warns New Zealanders to think twice before moving, citing housing and cost-of-living strain. Energy & Data Centres: A proposed 1GW behind-the-meter AI data centre campus near Darwin would be paired with large solar and storage, plus gas generation, and targets major upfront investment.

Wage Pressure on Small Business: The Fair Work Commission’s July award increase of 4.75% is set to hit about 2.8 million workers, with the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry warning it could be the “tipping point” for some firms. Super Compliance Crunch: From 1 July, PayDay Super forces employers to pay super at the same time as wages, with contributions due to reach funds within seven business days. Big Four Shake-Up: Treasury is consulting on breaking up audit-and-consulting models and capping firm sizes at 400 partners, after KPMG and PwC scandals raised fresh trust concerns. Housing & Rates Backdrop: The Aussie dollar slid and markets weighed US rate hikes; locally, investors are watching building approvals as home prices keep falling. Corporate Deals: Coles is in talks with TPG about buying Greencross Pet Wellness, while South32 agreed to sell most aluminium assets to Alcoa in a deal worth up to $5.6b. Regulation & Scams: A new SMS Sender ID Register will label unregistered texts as “Unverified” to curb impersonation scams. Energy & Industry: Work has started at Golding’s Meandu coal mine contract for Stanwell, while new battery projects continue to expand storage capacity.

Telecom Infrastructure: SUBCO has brought its SMAP submarine cable into service, a 5,000km, 16-fibre-pair system boosting Australia’s transcontinental capacity with 400+ Tbps and adding route diversity between Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, with major early customers including Aussie Broadband and Cloudflare. Energy & Housing: Renew Economy reports some renters are illegally plugging portable home batteries into mains as rules lag demand, highlighting a policy gap for apartment backup power. Cost of Living: The 32-cent-a-litre fuel tax discount is being halved to 16 cents, with the cut set to end in early August, hitting low-income households hardest. Regulation & Safety: Australia’s Warrant of Fitness changes for motorcycles are under scrutiny, with officials warning longer intervals could raise defect-related crash risks despite claimed economic gains. Mental Health & Money: ASIC and Beyond Blue research finds financial hardship and mental health issues are tightly linked, with 14% of adults reporting both over five years. Trade & Connectivity: Aero Dili’s inaugural Dili–Darwin flight marks a new aviation link for Timor-Leste and the NT, aiming to lift tourism and business ties.

Markets & Rates: The Australian dollar slid to a three-month low as RBA minutes kept the door open to more hikes, with investors also watching housing risks and credit data. Big Tech & Consumers: The ACCC has launched Federal Court action against Amazon over alleged unfair Prime Video ad changes, arguing annual subscribers were forced to pay extra to stay ad-free. Energy Skills & Jobs: Fortescue is backing a Perth training centre with TAFE to tackle a looming electrician shortage, aiming to speed up the renewable and battery build-out. Northern Australia Funding: Parliament passed legislation to lock in the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) to 2036, extending investment in projects across clean energy, housing and regional infrastructure. Policy & Compliance: New rules from July 1 will label unregistered sender IDs as “unverified” to help curb SMS scams. Environment & Risk: A deep-sea mining campaign warns radioactive material could enter the food chain, while NSW expands shark-spotting drones—useful, but not a guarantee of safety. Governance & Work: A salon owner won an AFCA dispute after a tobacco shop arson left toxic soot, with insurer quantum challenged.

Pacific Security Pact: Australia and Vanuatu signed a sweeping economic and security agreement in Canberra that bars any foreign military base on Vanuatu soil, amid concerns China is seeking a permanent presence; the deal also includes greater Australian economic support for Vanuatu. Infrastructure Corruption Watch: A corruption-fighting barrister says alleged wrongdoing in Victoria’s $109bn Big Build should be referred to police and renewed calls for a royal commission are growing after reporting on alleged CFMEU infiltration, extortion claims and inflated costs. Hospitality Expansion: Capella Hotel Group appointed Feisal Jaffer as chief development officer to drive global growth, aiming to double its portfolio by 2030. Coal Royalties Gap: NSW faces about $3bn in coal royalties expected, raising the question of how the state will replace the revenue as the energy transition accelerates. AI & Data Centres: Firmus Technologies and Nvidia plan a 360MW AI data centre campus in Indonesia, expected to be operational by early 2027. Markets/Policy: Australia’s under-16 social media ban is set to face tougher enforcement, with regulators seeking more power and higher penalties for non-compliance.

Pacific Security: Australia and Vanuatu have signed the long-delayed Nakamal Agreement, locking in a ban on foreign military bases and adding consultation rules over third-party investment in Vanuatu’s critical infrastructure as strategic competition with China intensifies. Banking & Housing Finance: APRA is proposing lower risk weights for unrated mid-market borrowers and easing the pre-sales threshold for lower-cost construction lending (including build-to-rent via pre-lease contracts), aiming to support credit availability for new homes. Insurance Costs: NSW forecasts more than $3b a year from insurance levies and stamp duties, while APRA data shows insurers are building bigger householders buffers for “worse than expected” outcomes amid climate and claims volatility. Digital ID: The federal government will charge businesses for use of myID as the Digital ID system opens to private reliance from 1 Dec 2026, with pricing and neutrality arrangements set ahead of market entry. Markets & Macro: ASX 200 edged up as investors took comfort from a US-Iran stand-down, but attention stays on geopolitics and AI-driven capex worries. Property: Auction clearance rates are sliding, signalling a more uneven housing correction rather than a broad crash. Business Growth: Select Harvests appoints Kristina Hermanson as CEO from Aug 3, and insurtech Federato expands into Sydney to push AI underwriting across Australia and NZ.

Maritime Safety: AMSA’s Marine Incident Annual Report 2025 flags another year of high incident volumes in Australian waters (4,174 reports), with safety concerns up 14.7% and collisions/groundings still among the most common types. AI Data Centres: Nvidia-backed Firmus will build a 360MW “Nvidia DSX AI Factory” in Batam, Indonesia, with DayOne, targeting first operations in Q1 2027 and up to $30B in committed offtake over six years—another sign Australia-linked AI infrastructure is going global fast. Cyber & Online Harms: Australia’s under-16 social media ban is back in the spotlight, with reporting suggesting it’s working on paper but less so in practice, while a separate anti-Semitism probe turns to big tech and the role of media in hate content spread. Housing & Retirement Policy (NZ): New Zealand house prices have been flat for about three years, and debate continues over whether NZ Super should be means-tested rather than eligibility age lifted—both themes feed into broader cost-of-living pressure for households. Business & Finance (NZ): Mandatory building warranties/insurance for new homes is being considered, with regulators weighing competition risks if insurers pull back.

Macro Slowdown: Westpac says Australia’s growth has slowed sharply and is stabilising at a weak pace, with a 27% chance of contraction in Q2 2026. Tax & Property: Economists argue Labor’s housing tax changes could make regional property more attractive than metro, as negative gearing and capital gains shifts hit metro investors harder while regional yields remain a draw. Super Warning: Scott Pape (Barefoot Investor) warns Australians against withdrawing super for cosmetic procedures, saying early access can turn a $40,000 bill into a $200,000 mistake. Bird Flu Risk: Environment Minister Murray Watt flags that any spread of H5 bird flu to Australia’s $8bn poultry industry could be “very, very serious” economically, though current cases are in migratory birds only. Fuel Costs: Australian fuel prices have fallen back to pre-Iran-war levels, but motorists face a 16c/litre rise from Wednesday as the fuel excise is reintroduced at half rate. Digital Currency Watch: The EU digital euro moves closer as the European Parliament backs its position, with a possible 2029 launch timeline. Business & Innovation: A-Sonic Aerospace eyes Asean acquisitions to boost growth, while Australia’s AI accelerator push aims to commercialise new tech. Regional Shock: Venezuela’s earthquakes have killed about 1,430, with rescuers racing to find survivors as aid ramps up.

Markets & geopolitics: Global shares slid as tech stocks came under pressure amid AI-bubble worries, while investors digested Iran–US tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears; Australia’s ASX 200 also eased, with resources and telecoms dragging as bond yields softened. AI & supply chains: The Philippines joined the US-led Pax Silica AI alliance, backing “pro-growth” rules aimed at strengthening AI supply chains, critical minerals and semiconductor capacity. Competition & regulation: Australia’s ACCC moves to monitor supermarket compliance with new excessive pricing rules, while crypto firms get more time to secure licences. Policy & cost of living: Australia’s paid parental leave expands to six months, and July 1 brings a raft of money changes for households and businesses. Security & cyber risk: ASIO’s surveillance chief warns of unprecedented threats, and Five Eyes flags AI-driven cyberattacks as a near-term risk to banks, businesses and governments. Local crime: Thai police arrest an Australian after a teen’s body was found in a suitcase near Pattaya. Sport (business angle): FIFA’s dynamic pricing is pricing out lower-income fans at the World Cup, shifting matches toward higher-income supporters.

Resources & Tax Policy: Albanese’s capital gains tax changes are drawing fresh fire from the mining lobby, with warnings they could chill exploration investment by hitting the retail backers who fund junior projects. Energy Scrutiny: Woodside’s Browse LNG push is back under the microscope after the environment minister accepted a request to reconsider its EPBC decision, reigniting public and legal pressure. Critical Minerals & China Ties: Korea and Australia discussed critical minerals cooperation, while broader coverage flags how dependence on China is shaping Australia’s minerals strategy. Pacific Deals: Vanuatu PM Jotham Napat heads to Canberra as a potential $500m partnership looms, spanning climate adaptation, infrastructure and budget support. Security & AI: ASIO’s threat assessment again warns of escalating national security dangers, including far-left activism, as Five Eyes issues fresh alarms about AI-enabled cyber threats. Cost-of-Living & Work: July 1 changes include income tax cuts, instant deductions and expanded paid parental leave, with knock-on effects for household budgets and business planning. Property Watch: Commentary and market coverage point to a cooling housing cycle, with first-home buyers facing new traps and higher costs. Tourism & Culture Economy: WA’s Terracotta Warriors exhibition is reported as a major tourism and jobs boost, while Tasmania’s winter events keep pulling visitors and spending.

Payments Infrastructure: PayID has crossed the “mainstream” line, with more than 25 million PayIDs registered nationwide as the RBA pushes credit card interchange fee cuts and the industry looks toward the BECS direct entry sunset by 2030. AI & Telecom Risk: A TM Forum DTW Ignite discussion highlights how agentic AI in telecom is moving fast, but operators are still cautious—data quality, legacy systems and mission-critical risk management remain the blockers. Crypto Regulation: ASIC has extended the no-action period for Australian digital asset businesses to September 30, giving firms extra time to transition under the AFS licensing regime. Corporate Moves: Uber India head Prabhjeet Singh is quitting to become OpenAI’s managing director in India, as OpenAI expands its Asia footprint. ASX/Business Tech: Recruitable is expanding its AI-powered ATS/CRM and candidate sourcing suite, aiming to consolidate fragmented hiring tools. Energy & Industry: Korea Zinc and the Australian government agreed to deepen critical minerals cooperation, with a focus on strengthening supply chains and smelting competitiveness. Local Economy & Planning: A proposed data centre in Katoomba was withdrawn after community and council opposition over environmental and noise concerns.

Stagflation jitters: Investors are watching Australia’s mix of sticky inflation, weaker growth and rising unemployment (jobless rate 4.4%) as a “worst of both worlds” risk, with analysts pointing to defensive sectors and essential assets as potential winners. Household demand: ABS data shows spending bounced 1.3% in May after April’s fall, led by clothing/footwear (+2.7%) and services, though tighter RBA expectations loom. Policy and politics: Albanese used the CEDA State of the Nation to push deeper ties with India alongside clean energy, AI and supply-chain resilience, while the government also signalled it will “stress-test” Australia’s under-16 social media ban to hold up in legal challenges. Consumer rules: From July 1, ACMA’s branded SMS sender ID register will label unregistered business texts as “Unverified” to curb scams. Business and tech risk: A Clyde & Co report says AI is driving a sharp jump in technology risk across governance, regulation and reputation. Energy transition reality check: South Australia’s grid swung from 100% renewables to a wind drought, renewing calls for more long-duration storage. Fracking setback: A fracking water-trigger lawsuit over the NT Beetaloo pilot was dismissed, leaving activists pressing for clearer federal certainty. Corporate/markets: Apple lifted MacBook and iPad prices in Australia citing AI-driven component costs; meanwhile ASX sentiment stayed fragile as investors weighed global rate bets.

Defence Overhaul: Australia’s Defence delivery is underperforming more widely than expected, with “congested” decision-making and weak project discipline blamed as Labor pushes a major restructure and new delivery agency. Cyber & AI Risk: Five Eyes warns frontier AI could accelerate cyberattacks against governments and business within months, urging leaders to act now. Security Environment: ASIO’s spy chief says Australia’s threat environment is degrading, with politically motivated violence and state-linked cyber threats rising beyond the “probable” terrorism level. Markets & Energy: Oil’s slide is easing inflation pressure via a stronger US dollar, while investors stay cautious ahead of key macro data and earnings. Aviation Safety: Airbus is supporting urgent inspections of certain A380 wing structures after regulators found cracks; Qantas is among operators flagged. Visa & Travel: The UAE expands visa-on-arrival access for nationals of six countries (including Kenya, with residence permits), signalling continued travel and business facilitation. Business & Policy: New tax transparency rules are set to increase disclosures, but may be messy and hard to compare across jurisdictions.