AGP Executive Report

ASX Outlook: The ASX is set to open firmer after Wall Street steadied late, with futures up about 1% following a local sell-off driven by surging oil, higher yields and renewed inflation worries. AI Reality Check: Big Australian firms are spending more on AI, but outcomes keep stalling—pilots too often don’t graduate into measurable earnings. Public Service Shock: New Zealand’s government says it will cut nearly 9000 public service roles over three years, targeting a core workforce of about 55,000 by mid-2029, sparking a fresh election-year fight over “cruel” job losses. Fuel Security Moves: Australia secured extra jet fuel from China and urea from Brunei via its $7.5b fuel-and-fertiliser facility as Iran-war disruptions keep pressure on supply. Sport & State Politics: Hawthorn says it’s “extremely disappointed” the AFL will end its Launceston home-game deal after 2027, clearing the way for the Devils’ Tasmania focus.

Pacific Drug Crackdown: The AFP has warned the Pacific is now a major national security front after 17 tonnes of illicit drugs (mostly cocaine) were seized since January—already far above 2025’s total—fuelled by organised crime using new tactics like semi-submersible vessels and targeting routes into Australia. Geopolitics: China and the US are again circling Taiwan’s flashpoint, with Xi invoking the “Thucydides Trap” idea that rivalry can make conflict more likely. Markets & Energy: Oil jumped as Trump warned Iran “the clock is ticking”, pushing global bond and stock jitters. Corporate Australia/Region: Keppel’s M1-Simba telco deal is effectively stalled after Singapore’s regulator suspended its review, raising fresh questions for the asset sale plan. Mining: Anglo American agreed to sell its Australian steelmaking coal business to Dhilmar for up to $3.88bn, continuing its exit from coal ahead of its Teck merger. Business & People: Bain Capital closed Asia Fund VI at $10.5bn, while HiBob was named an ISG Vendor of Excellence for HCM.

Middle East Pressure on Markets: Oil jumped more than 2% as Trump ratcheted up threats over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz standoff, keeping traders on edge about supply and pushing bond yields higher. NZ Brain Drain: A shock NZ PSA survey says more than one in four public service workers want to leave for better pay, with nearly half of under-25s considering the move to Australia. Critical Minerals Crackdown: Australia ordered Chinese-linked investors to divest millions of shares in rare earths miner Northern Minerals, as Canberra tries to protect the supply chain. Casino Health Scrutiny: Ambulance Victoria data shows paramedics attended 59 overdose/poisoning cases at Crown Melbourne in 2024-25, about once every two weeks. Corporate Moves: H&M is relocating its Southeast Asia HQ to Kuala Lumpur, cutting about 30% of regional support roles; Auric Mining named a new CEO to drive a plant rebuild and restart plans. Budget Backlash: Labor defended housing tax changes as polls show voters feel worse off.

Food & Energy Shock: Italy’s Mutti, one of Europe’s biggest chopped-tomato and passata producers, warns tomato prices could rise later this year if high oil costs persist into the peak summer harvest, after energy bills jumped about 50% above expectations. ASX Capital Markets: Weebit Nano has completed a $73m raise on the ASX, using the funds to scale up and commercialise its ReRAM memory tech for semiconductors and AI. Space & Defence: ICEYE is setting up its first Indian satellite manufacturing hub for small defence and surveillance satellites, aiming to serve the Asia-Pacific market. Drugs Interdiction: Nigeria’s NDLEA says it intercepted cocaine and opioids hidden in cartons of clothes bound for the UK and Australia, alongside major skunk seizures. Grid Pressure (US): North America’s reliability watchdog has issued a rare Level 3 alert over sudden disconnections tied to fast-growing data-centre loads. Housing Politics: A fresh poll shows cautious support for Labor’s housing tax changes, but with business and property groups warning of rental-market strain.

Budget Fallout: Treasurer Jim Chalmers is playing down any post-budget “bounce” as the tax overhaul sparks fresh heat, while Housing Minister Clare O’Neil won’t rule out young buyers ending up in negative equity. Property Pressure: With CGT and negative gearing changes set to bite from 2027, investors are weighing whether to sell before the rules tighten. Immigration & Welfare: Opposition Leader Angus Taylor says permanent residents will face a “price” if they don’t become citizens, as the Coalition points to welfare and NDIS restrictions. Environment Under Scrutiny: Advocates warn Labor’s native-species extinction promise could slip if environmental funding is too short and too small. Geopolitics & Trade: Strait of Hormuz tensions are also refocusing attention on Asia’s shipping chokepoints, with leaders warning of a wider Pacific rivalry. Business & Markets: ASX chatter stays dominated by bank and tech moves, with investors bracing for volatility.

Biotech Breakthrough: Enhertu has just won new U.S. FDA approvals for two additional uses in HER2-positive early breast cancer, expanding its role in both neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment pathways. Health Security: Australia is moving fast on a hantavirus scare, with six passengers from the MV Hondius landing in Perth for a quarantine expected to last at least three weeks. Telecom & Cost of Living: Starlink is lifting prices in the U.S. and elsewhere, adding $5–$10 a month for key plans from mid-June, with one Roam tier unchanged. Geopolitics: Trump’s China summit is being framed as a bust on Iran—China is still buying Iranian oil, and no joint plan for the Strait of Hormuz emerged. Policy & Industry: India is preparing a manufacturing push by targeting nearly 100 products to cut import dependence, alongside faster investment approvals and more trade deals. Sports & Culture: Fiji Drua co-captain Temo Mayanavanua admits they weren’t “urgent enough” in key moments after a loss to the Waratahs.

Migration duel hits universities: The Coalition’s plan to slash international student numbers by capping intake to the number of homes built is drawing fire from universities, which warn it will cost jobs and damage Australia’s reputation. Housing tax shake-up meets real-world friction: Labor’s investor tax overhaul is already colliding with Melbourne’s auction reality, where families still face intense bidding despite expectations of softer investor demand. Trusts under scrutiny: A spotlight is growing on Australia’s “one million” discretionary trusts, with calls for transparency as secrecy around trustees and beneficiaries fuels family disputes and tax concerns. Cost-of-living pressure, retail expansion: Costco is pushing ahead with up to 20 new warehouses, with a key $74m planning test looming over its Pakenham site. Local infrastructure costs rise: New wastewater fees were approved after drought-driven water use fell, but treatment costs stayed high due to infiltration and Metro system expenses.

Markets Watch: Asian stocks slid and oil jumped after Trump-Xi talks failed to move the needle on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leaving investors jittery about inflation and higher rates. Australia Budget Fallout: Dairy farmers say the federal budget offered little direct help despite drought, feed shortages and rising energy and compliance costs, while housing and investor tax changes are again under the microscope for worsening affordability and homelessness risks. AI & Work: IAG says it’s embedding AI across claims and customer operations via “deploy, shape and compose,” while a survey finds 99% of professional visual artists dislike generative AI and many fear income and job security hits. Business Deals: Seraya is weighing a sale or IPO for offshore wind services firm Cyan, and Keppel has locked in a 25-year fibre deal with Telstra on the Bifrost cable system. Health & Policy: Australia is preparing a tough quarantine for six hantavirus passengers arriving from a cruise ship.

Middle East Shock: MSF has condemned Israeli strikes that killed paramedics in Lebanon, calling attacks on medical staff “unacceptable” as the pattern of violence escalates. Politics & Tax: In Australia’s budget reply fight, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor pitched a “bracket creep” indexing plan to deliver workers extra pay, while Labor and critics hit back hard on the price tag and how it would be funded. Pacific Power Shift: Solomon Islands has elected Matthew Wale as prime minister, a change closely watched for its stance toward China and regional security. Markets: Australian shares drifted lower as bank jitters linger after CBA’s worst-day sell-off, while miners steadied and oil-linked stocks gained on energy price nerves. Trade & Geopolitics: The US is pushing deeper coordination on the Luzon Economic Corridor, aiming to turn Subic Bay into a bigger trade and investment hub. Business & Policy: Australia extended EV purchase incentives for longer, framing it as “fuel resilience” amid Middle East disruption.

Market Jitters: Weir Group shares have slid about 30% from an all-time high after mining customers held back on new pump orders, reviving fears of a wider squeeze between record commodity prices and equipment spending. Energy & Tech: Xcel Energy is rolling out AI wildfire-detection cameras across Wisconsin to spot smoke faster and protect power infrastructure. Transport & Travel: World Cup ticket resale prices keep falling, with some early matches down more than 30% as demand disappoints. Corporate Earnings: Air India’s losses dragged Singapore Airlines Group FY26 net profit down 57%. Geopolitics: Xi hailed a “new positioning” with the US—co-operation with “measured competition”—as Trump and Xi meet in Beijing. Deals & Defence: Mobix Labs is eyeing a US rare-earth and critical-minerals infrastructure acquisition, betting on sovereign supply-chain demand. Health Access: Regional bulk billing is rising toward metro levels, but clinics still warn of workforce and travel barriers.

Markets Jolt: ASX 200 futures point to a softer open after a brutal banking sell-off, with Commonwealth Bank down 10.4% to $153.67 following a profit miss and fresh worries that Budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax could cool investor demand. Policy Pressure: The Greens’ packaging bill is ratcheting up reform pressure with calls for a mandatory Extended Producer Responsibility scheme, arguing the current co-regulatory approach has failed to lift recycling and recycled-content targets. Fintech vs Fees: Kiwibank’s CEO says international money transfers are “ripe” for fintech disruption, pushing for more transparent costs as Kiwi Group explores capital options. Insurance Clarity: An AFCA ruling backs a business after an “open air” exclusion was rejected for a theft from a locked car, stressing the policy’s “temporary removal” wording. Global Watch: Investors keep eyes on the Trump–Xi summit as AI-driven rallies lift sentiment, while Middle East risk continues to rattle reserves and shipping costs.

ASX Banking Shock: Australia’s housing-tax overhaul talk is hitting bank stocks hard again, with Westpac leading the slide and Commonwealth Bank on track for its biggest one-day drop as investors reprice where “mum-and-dad” money will flow. NZX Drift & Rates Watch: The kiwi dollar eased and bond yields ticked up after the RBNZ survey kept longer-term inflation expectations “well-anchored,” leaving policymakers breathing room. Healthcare Pressure: Healius plunged after cutting FY26 guidance, blaming softer volumes, weaker GP attendance and rising labour costs—adding to a shaky ASX healthcare mood after CSL’s earlier sell-off. Housing Tax Fallout: Real estate strategists warn the reforms could redirect investors toward commercial property, while the budget also locks in the $20,000 instant asset write-off. Global Moves: Mongolia weighs new consulates in Sydney and Frankfurt, while Laos and Australia reaffirm education and skills cooperation.

Markets & Banking: Commonwealth Bank shares slid to a three-month low after profit growth came in light, with the bank topping up provisions to guard against tougher loan conditions. ASX Resources: Elevra Lithium shares fell sharply after a $275m placement at $12.20 a share, a discount that spooked investors. Federal Budget Fallout: The housing tax shake-up is already triggering a political backlash, with the Coalition vowing to repeal negative gearing and capital gains changes if it wins power, while Labor insists the reforms will help younger buyers. Infrastructure: NSW has shortlisted two consortia to safely reopen the Great Western Highway at Mitchells Causeway, with a final delivery partner due after parallel assessments. Defence & Geopolitics: Australia plans to deploy E-7A Wedgetail aircraft to support freedom of navigation around Hormuz amid Middle East shipping disruption. Business & Tech: Dentsu is folding Merkle into its ANZ structure and spinning off its Salesforce practice; meanwhile, Instructure says it reached an agreement after the Canvas cyberattack, with stolen data returned. Global Watch: Japan’s security posture is under scrutiny after live-fire missile drills involving Australia and others. Corporate Earnings: Aristocrat reported strong first-half growth, with EPSA up 19% and market share gains.

Federal Budget Fallout: Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ 2026-27 budget puts housing tax reform at the centre—capping negative gearing to new builds from July next year and replacing the 50% CGT discount with inflation-adjusted indexation—while also flagging a “worst-case” Iran conflict scenario that could push inflation above 7% and unemployment higher. Identity & Cyber Risk: Sophos says 71% of organisations suffered an identity-related breach in the past year, with identity attacks increasingly driving ransomware. Corporate Moves: CGI appoints Tim Hurlebaus as CEO after AI fears hit its share price; Ardent Mills names Erik Wibholm executive VP for trading and risk. Transport & Travel Pressure: Airlines are cancelling flights for May half-term as jet fuel costs spike amid Middle East disruption. Indigenous Rights: Australia’s Federal Court orders Fortescue to pay $150m to the Yindjibarndi people for cultural loss tied to mining access. Tech for Design: Vectorworks adds Morpholio Trace integration to link iPad sketching directly into BIM workflows.

Budget Shock: Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the 2026 budget will tackle cost-of-living and housing pressures, but the big fight is over tax settings—bracket creep is set to lift average taxes by about $440 in 2027, with the Working Australian Tax Offset (WATO) only partially cushioning it. Housing & Politics: Chalmers admits the housing and tax system “is not working for a lot of Australians”, as Labor prepares negative gearing and capital gains tax changes that risk breaking election promises and fuelling One Nation momentum. Markets & Energy: ASX trade is soft as Middle East tensions keep oil elevated and business confidence stays bruised—NAB’s survey shows confidence still stuck in gloom. Corporate Watchdogs: ASIC has launched a formal probe into DroneShield after scrutiny of disclosures around a $67m share sell-off by former leaders. Tech & Small Business: Xero’s CEO has apologised after days of outages hit accountants and small firms during tax time. Regional Deals: Vanuatu’s cabinet has approved an updated Nakamal Agreement with Australia, with final Australian sign-off expected.

Indigenous renewables milestone: ACEN’s Pilbara solar JV with Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corp has reached financial close, clearing the way for construction of the Jinbi solar project under a 30-year PPA with Rio Tinto—first stage 75MWac/102MWdc, with expansion and possible battery storage on the table. Budget watch: Australia’s 2026 federal budget is set to deliver a $45bn bottom-line improvement, with the big-ticket fight over tax—negative gearing and capital gains concessions—plus deep NDIS cuts and a major property tax overhaul aimed at housing affordability. Crypto policy pressure: A one-year grace period for planned CGT changes is being floated for assets bought from budget night, but the exact transition rules will decide how crypto investors plan for what comes next. Tech and defence headlines: Rocket Software completes its Vertica analytics acquisition; Skyborne wins a US “limited safety release” for its CODiAQ armed quadruped, moving it into operational testing. Health and geopolitics: Myanmar’s cardinal calls the country a “polycrisis” five years after the coup, while the WFP warns Afghanistan’s malnutrition emergency is still “silent” and worsening. Consumer reality check: Westfield Bondi Junction faces fresh backlash after rat footage in the food court.