AGP Executive Report

Tax Reform Passes: Albanese’s negative gearing and capital gains tax package is set to clear parliament this week after a Greens tweak to stop “taxmaxxing” via self-managed super fund borrowing, with debate now turning to housing impacts and consultation. Housing Market Pressure: Clearance rates hit a six-year low, with just 47.4% of homes selling at auction nationally, pushing agents to lean harder on marketing while vendors become more open to strong offers earlier. Defence Exports: Australia signs a landmark $2.5bn government-to-government deal with Canada to export Over the Horizon Radar tech, the biggest-ever defence export, supporting Arctic early warning. Cyber Risk Alert: Five Eyes warns frontier AI could supercharge cyberattacks within months, urging businesses to act now on cyber resilience. Business Credit Stress: AFSA insolvencies rose 9.3% year-on-year while ASIC company insolvencies fell 10%, suggesting mounting strain in smaller, unincorporated firms. Energy & Renewables: Victoria’s 250MW Goorambat East solar farm is fully commissioned, marking a milestone for robotic-assisted construction. Corporate Moves: Danone expands in Australia by acquiring Made Group, boosting its Asia-Pacific footprint.

NDIS overhaul stalls: Labor’s bid to rein in National Disability Insurance Scheme spending is facing another delay, with a final inquiry report likely pushed back and an interim version expected instead—while the bill’s proposed removals and funding cuts spark fresh pushback from the Greens and could be targeted in the Senate. State budgets under pressure: NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s cautious budget leans on “relief and reform” with upgrades across tolls, trains, schools and hospitals, as higher rates and a sluggish property market weigh on the economy. 2032 Games debt balancing act: Queensland is using its budget to keep Brisbane’s Olympic build on track, but economists warn it must ease cost-of-living pressure without spooking markets with rising debt. Markets & geopolitics: Stocks drifted as chips extended gains and oil slid after positive US-Iran talks, with investors also watching key global data including core PCE and PMIs. Cybersecurity warning: Five Eyes signals agencies say AI models capable of taking down governments and businesses are “months away,” urging leaders to act now. Business & consumer: Accent rejects Frasers’ £166m bid as discretionary retail weakness bites; Danone moves deeper into Asia-Pacific by buying Australia’s Made Group. Tech & governance: WiseTech faces scrutiny after police investigate founder over trafficking allegations, adding to governance concerns for the software sector.

Markets & Macro: Oil eased after signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks, but Australia’s ASX still faces a shaky open as Hormuz risk and inflation worries linger. Energy & Costs: The Albanese government moved to extend fuel excise relief for another month, cutting petrol and diesel by 16 cents a litre to ease cost-of-living pressure. Financial Services & Risk: APRA has warned insurers, banks and super funds to lift readiness for geopolitical shocks, spelling out minimum expectations for governance, stress testing and crisis planning. Insurance & Tech: TAL says it paid $4.7m in benefits to 57,000 customers in the year to March, while PwC warns many firms are “AI washing” with cost-cutting that misses real reinvention. Housing & Construction: A new forecast flags a shortfall in the National Housing Accord pipeline, as workforce strain and supply-chain pressures threaten delivery. Business & Regulation: Queensland ruled out coal royalties holidays for new mines, keeping Labor’s tax settings in place despite industry pressure. Innovation & Growth: Play Now Melbourne locked in major global game publishers for 2026, while Defence Australia is pushing sovereign AI and a federated data approach for national security. Health & Biosecurity: WA confirmed two H5N1-infected birds, with national coordination and public vigilance urged.

Fuel Relief: Anthony Albanese extends the fuel excise cut by one month, keeping petrol and diesel about 16 cents per litre lower than the full rate in July, after an earlier three-month cut tied to Middle East oil-market disruptions. Tax & Politics: Labor pushes controversial tax changes (negative gearing and capital gains tax) through parliament before a winter break, but needs Greens support while the Coalition opposes; a separate NDIS inquiry report is also delayed again. Digital Consumer Pressure: A new CPRC report says four in five Australians have had problems with digital services in the past year, costing an estimated $497m, with most issues centred on access, fees and slow customer service. Markets & Rates: Global rates repriced as forex markets track policy divergence, with US and Europe staying hawkish and short-end yields moving higher. AI & Industry: An AI “time machine” index ranks robotaxi and autonomy leaders, while another report highlights AI saving a coal mine $191,000 in one morning. Energy Infrastructure Debate: Australia’s datacentre boom is accelerating, but economists warn the productivity case isn’t automatic and the “right level” of investment matters. Sport (Business Angle): Australia completes a 3-0 T20I sweep of Bangladesh, with Spencer Johnson’s standout economical spell and Mitchell Marsh’s 60 off 28 powering the chase.

CGT showdown: Opposition leader Angus Taylor says the Albanese government’s CGT backdown for small businesses is “half-arsed”, after start-up carve-outs and a higher turnover threshold for a 50% discount—sparking fresh business anger and a new round of Canberra debate. Housing supply push: NSW is set to fund a modular and pre-fab housing manufacturing hub in its Budget, aiming to speed approvals and cut build times—while industry groups warn it won’t fix the crisis alone. Cost-of-living health support: Queensland regional patient travel changes drew criticism as a “drop in the ocean”, with advocates arguing the fuel payment increase still falls far short of real costs. Energy demand pressure: Victoria’s grid planners are rewriting long-term forecasts to explicitly model data centre growth, warning renewables transition could be delayed and gas may be needed to keep supply reliable. Aviation and travel: Qantas’ fleet renewal and ultra-long-haul plans (including Project Sunrise) are reshaping long-distance competition, while Qantas also tests cabin ideas to reduce jet lag on the world’s longest nonstop routes. Biosecurity risk: WA poultry operations are on alert after Australia’s first mainland H5N1 detection near Esperance, prompting event cancellations and tighter controls on bird movements.

Fuel Relief: Anthony Albanese will extend Australia’s petrol price relief into July, but at a smaller 16c per litre discount (down from the current 32c), with the move expected to cost about $2.9bn in foregone revenue. Aviation & Travel Tech: Qantas has unveiled the next evolution of its Project Sunrise A350-1000ULR cabin, using science-led design with a Wellbeing Zone and circadian lighting for the 2027 Sydney–London non-stop. Airport Digital Upgrade: Perth Airport has picked DXC Technology as master systems integrator for its multi-billion terminal transformation, covering integration of 70+ tech and operational systems ahead of a 2031 opening. Cyber & Finance: ASIC has scored a major win in the Block Earner crypto yield case, while a separate report flags a surge in credential stuffing risk tied to 24bn stolen passwords. Business & Policy: KPMG’s Australia governance probe continues to draw heat from lawmakers as the Big Four faces fresh scrutiny. Markets: Reserve Bank kept rates on hold at 4.35% amid economic slowdown concerns, with warnings rate hikes may not be over.

Qantas Long-Haul Upgrade: Qantas says its next-gen “wellness zone” and extra legroom will make the world’s longest nonstop Sydney–London flights feel more bearable, with science-led meal timing and lighting planned for launch next October. Fuel Relief Decision: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is weighing whether to extend the fuel excise discount after the June 30 deadline, with the temporary cut costing the budget about $2.9bn and supply conditions still uncertain. Workplace Flexibility Clash: Bunnings boss Michael Schneider warns Victoria’s new right-to-work-from-home rules could create “structural inequity” for teams that can’t work remotely, arguing businesses should manage flexibility themselves. Office Furniture Demand: A fresh industry release points to steady growth in Australia’s office furniture market, driven by hybrid work and ergonomics, with seating the biggest category. Electrification Push at COP31 Talks: Climate negotiators in Bonn put electrification back at the centre, with Turkey (supported by Australia) backing a target to lift electricity’s share of final energy by 2035. China Beef Tariff Hit: China will impose a 55% levy on Australian beef imports after quota limits were reached, raising pressure on a trade relationship worth more than $1bn. Theatre Cost Pressure: Beetlejuice The Musical has been cancelled early in Australia, with the national tour cut short after logistics and cost pressures made the run unsustainable. Regional Business Squeeze: A commentary argues regional employers are being crushed by taxes, red tape and rules, calling out the gap between policy intent and how businesses actually operate. World Cup Spillover: US–Australia results are boosting watch-party trade in some US cities, while Vancouver small businesses report mixed fortunes under FIFA’s licensing and crowd effects.

ASX & mining shock: Australia’s sharemarket slid as BHP shares plunged after a $2bn project cost blowout, adding to a week of market jitters. Tax reform backlash: Business and tax experts pushed back on Labor’s CGT changes, with debate intensifying over how carve-outs will affect investment and small business. RBA watch: The Reserve Bank held rates at 4.35% as it weighed economic slowdown risks, while warning further hikes may still be on the table. Cybercrime & sport scams: With FIFA World Cup fever driving online activity, security researchers flagged thousands of related scam domains and impersonation accounts targeting fans. AI in audiobooks: Australia-based Bolinda and Spotify are rolling out AI voice tools, but a New York Times report highlights large-scale audiobook piracy on YouTube. Energy & infrastructure: Australia’s renewables push got a boost with a $95.4m commitment to extend advanced solar research, while PNG Ports’ major upgrade plan is backed by Australian funding. Health & safety: A coroner’s inquest heard about a death after a home birthkeeper allegedly delayed emergency care, reigniting scrutiny of non-medical childbirth support.

Markets & Rates: The ASX 200 is set to open lower after a hawkish Fed tone pushed up US rate expectations, weighing on miners and tech while oil eases as Strait of Hormuz shipping resumes. Policy & Housing: First-home buyers are losing confidence as Budget tax reform threats to negative gearing and CGT keep investors on the sidelines, with buyer confidence down in a new REBAA scorecard. Tax Reform Fight: Labor’s CGT changes face fresh Senate pressure, with business groups warning the carve-outs still won’t fix the damage to investment and innovation. NDIS Overhaul Delay: A major NDIS reform report has been delayed again, extending uncertainty for providers and raising fears for vulnerable participants. Workplace Rules: The Fair Work Commission has clarified which enterprise agreement documents can be lodged online and tightened digital format and response deadlines for HR teams. Aviation & Travel: Qantas is pitching ultra-long Sydney–London flights with a “wellness zone” using sleep science, extra legroom and timed meals. Super & Politics: Pauline Hanson’s push for more mining and faster approvals is sparking a new debate about how resources-heavy super portfolios could be affected. Energy & FX: The yen hovers near multi-decade lows despite a BOJ hike, as markets watch for further intervention.

Aviation & Trade Links: Qantas has confirmed Project Sunrise will launch the world’s longest nonstop commercial flight between Sydney and London in October 2027, cutting up to four hours versus one-stop routes and using A350-1000ULR aircraft with extra fuel. Cybersecurity: Salesforce customers are again being hit via third-party app integration abuse, this time tied to Klue’s Battlecards app, with data access linked to OAuth token misuse. Business & Governance: KPMG is facing a tough Senate grilling after an 11th-hour decision to withhold documents, raising fresh questions about governance and how whistleblowers are handled. Economy & Policy: Australia’s net overseas migration fell to the lowest level since 2022, but remains politically contested as the Coalition argues it’s still too high. Work & Skills: A new report says small businesses using AI are far more likely to report revenue gains, with adoption rising quickly across Australia. Climate & Food Security: The FAO warns global food markets remain broadly supported but increasingly exposed to weather shocks like El Niño and geopolitical risks. Energy & Minerals: A new push to secure critical minerals continues, with rare earth supply concerns and deposit studies feeding the race for future manufacturing inputs.

Tax Reform Backdown: Labor has lifted the small-business CGT active-asset threshold to $10m and signalled further carve-outs after budget backlash, including changes to capital gains and discretionary trust rules. Small Business Relief: The National Farmers’ Federation says the higher threshold could bring 99% of farm businesses into the concession system for the first time. Regulatory Watch: ASIC says Australia’s $200bn private credit market must refresh asset valuations to reflect global shocks, warning of higher defaults and investor harm if numbers lag reality. EV & Marketing Push: BYD has handed Thrive PR & Communications its Australia and New Zealand launch and experiential remit as it ramps the next growth phase. Rare Earths Progress: Red Metal reports strong column leach recoveries for its Sybella rare earths project in Queensland, pointing to lower-cost heap-leach style processing. Energy & Jobs: Liquidators have sold NSW’s Tahmoor Colliery to a consortium, reviving hopes for hundreds of jobs pending approvals. Migration Numbers: ABS data shows net overseas migration eased in 2025, with arrivals below 2019 levels even as population growth stays elevated. Geopolitics & Markets: US-Iran peace steps helped lift Asian shares and push oil prices back toward pre-war levels, while rate-hike expectations keep investors cautious. Cyber Threats: A ransomware group linked to shutdowns at Queensland sugar mills has claimed responsibility, highlighting ongoing risks to critical supply chains.

Housing affordability squeeze: Even with Sydney and Melbourne house prices easing, higher rates are pushing the income needed to buy a median home higher—Cotality says Perth buyers now need about $123,787 a year (up from $107,329 in January) and first-home buyers still face a steep serviceability hurdle. Migration politics: The ABS is set to release net overseas arrivals data as parties clash over whether intake is too high, with One Nation and the Liberals accusing Labor of underestimating numbers. Far-right pressure on the economy: Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club pitch is being framed as a test of whether One Nation can convert anger into votes by tackling wages, housing and cost-of-living pain. G7 critical minerals: Leaders backed efforts to diversify supply chains and resist export restrictions for minerals vital to clean energy and defence, with Australia endorsing the declaration. Qantas Project Sunrise: Qantas confirms Sydney–London nonstop flights will start in October 2027 (up to 22 hours). Tech and jobs: PsiQuantum broke ground in Moreton Bay on a utility-scale quantum computer facility, signalling Australia’s push into next-gen computing.

RBA Watch: The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% as the economy slows, but warned hikes may not be over—keeping pressure on households and small business. Markets & Energy: The ASX 200 edged up 0.40% to 8,953.2 as US-Iran ceasefire hopes eased geopolitical risk and oil slid, helping sentiment across resources and financials. Cost of Living Strain: NAB data shows Australians are cutting back on car use and delaying doctor visits to cope with higher living costs. Housing & Policy: One Nation leader Pauline Hanson used the National Press Club to push a “monocultural” agenda and slash migration, while also targeting public broadcasters and renewable energy—fueling fresh debate on housing and energy policy. Workplace Rights: Fair Work dismissed an offshore worker’s general protections claim against Pepperstone, with the case turning on whether the worker was an eligible “Australian-based employee.” Disability Funding: Advocates say federal NDIS legislation changes will force states to plug disability support gaps later, risking much higher costs. Business Moves: Flight Centre downgraded earnings due to Middle East travel disruption, while CommSec says retail demand for SpaceX shares smashed records. Mining & Resources: Golden Dragon Mining lodged a new WA gold exploration licence near Big Bell, and Critica advanced scoping studies for Jupiter rare earths and Mt Lindsay tin-tungsten.

RBA Watch: Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35%, with governor Michele Bullock warning inflation is still too high and further hikes remain possible if needed. Markets & Energy: ASX ended flat as investors weighed rate clarity against war risks, while oil slid and gold’s rebound stalled as crude forecasts were cut. Tax & Investment: A peak private capital body told a parliamentary inquiry Labor’s capital gains tax changes could hit venture and growth funding, warning firms like Canva and Employment Hero relied on current settings. Industrial Relations: Inpex lost a bid to halt escalating protected industrial action at the Ichthys LNG project, with strikes set to run to at least 23 June and cargo loading effectively paused. Tech & Payments: Visa rolled out Click to Pay for eligible Revolut cardholders, aiming to cut online checkout friction and fraud. Media & Audience: A Reuters-led panel highlighted how news consumption is shifting toward social and video platforms, changing how outlets build audience relationships. Social Media Regulation: Prince Harry and Meghan backed the UK’s under-16 social media ban, echoing Australia’s earlier move. Environment & Resources: Federal regulators flagged missing environmental information in a Texas gas firm’s plan for 20 wells near WA’s Fitzroy River system.

RBA Holds Rates at 4.35%: The Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged for the first time in 2026 after three straight hikes, citing softer growth, a weaker jobs picture and still-high inflation, with markets now watching for whether it’s a pause or the start of another move. Cost-of-Living Relief Watch: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is weighing extending the $2.5bn fuel excise cut as voters push back on the budget, but economists warn extra stimulus could complicate inflation control. Retail Shock: Lincraft will progressively close all 60+ physical stores across Australia and New Zealand, affecting hundreds of jobs, while keeping the online business running. Energy Storage Push: Western Power is rolling out 18 community batteries (6.6MW) in Perth and Bunbury to soak up rooftop solar and discharge during evening peaks. Housing Tax Anxiety: Financial advisers warn Labor’s planned negative gearing changes could trip up some divorced or inherited investment property arrangements. SpaceX Bet: Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has taken a reported $1bn+ stake in SpaceX’s IPO, with potential links to critical minerals. Conservation Win: Kangaroo Island declares feral pigs eradicated after a multi-year program, while a new NT Indigenous Protected Area locks in 1.6m hectares of protection.

Middle East Energy Shockwave: Oil slid to a three-month low after the US-Iran interim peace deal sparked hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening, with Brent down 4.2% and WTI down 4.9% as traders unwind the “risk premium” but watch how fast production can restart. Diplomacy & Trade Routes: Australia backed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, praising mediators including Pakistan and Qatar, as a formal signing is expected in Switzerland later this week. Super Funds & Renewables: A Market Forces report says Australia’s top super funds are barely funding clean energy—$771m into renewables since 2020—while Canadian pension funds have invested more, raising pressure for faster transition. Tax Reform Under Fire: A Senate inquiry into CGT and negative gearing reforms begins, with economists and legal experts warning the evidence for housing impacts is thin and arguing the 50% CGT discount effectively subsidises wealthy investors. Industrial Relations: Inpex LNG strike action plans were challenged, with a court process suggesting disruption may be limited—though unions are pushing for extended stoppages. Online Safety Policy: Britain moved to ban under-16s from social media and restrict stranger contact in gaming/livestreaming, echoing Australia’s approach and reigniting debate on who should carry the compliance burden.