European Children Face Growing Lifetime Exposure to Extreme Fire Weather
The research found that, under climate policies currently in place, children born in Europe this year could be exposed to around three additional years of weather conditions that are highly favorable to extreme fires compared with people born 75 years earlier.
The difference is expected to be particularly pronounced across the Mediterranean region. Children born in 2025 could encounter five more years of extreme fire weather than individuals born during the post-war baby boom period.
Researchers assessed 21 different climate pathways, covering global warming levels between 1.5°C and 3.5°C (2.7°F to 6.3°F) by the end of the century. Extreme fire weather was defined as days when conditions exceed the severity of the worst 5% observed during the 1985–2014 reference period.
With existing policies expected to produce approximately 2.6°C (4.7°F) of global warming, children born today are projected to face 84% greater exposure to extreme fire weather than those born in 1950.
The study attributed most of this increase to climate change, estimating that it would account for 86% of the additional exposure. The remaining 14% was linked to longer life expectancy.
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