Survey indicates German ship-out outlook slipping on trade concerns
(MENAFN) German exporters grew more pessimistic in June due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential US trade tariffs, according to a survey released by the Ifo Institute.
Earlier in the year, US President Donald Trump introduced 20% tariffs on EU products, along with 25% duties on key goods such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. While some of the measures were temporarily paused for 90 days to allow negotiations, a 10% baseline tariff and several targeted levies remain in effect.
“The threat of US tariffs is still looming, and no deal with Washington has been reached yet,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of Ifo’s business surveys. “This uncertainty is dampening the outlook for exporters.”
The Ifo export expectations index dropped to -7.4 in June from -5.0 in May, indicating increased pessimism among manufacturing firms about their short-term export prospects.
German industries—particularly the automotive sector—have been hit hard. Manufacturers are already under pressure from falling sales, competition from Chinese producers, and the transition to electric vehicles. Many fear that rising global protectionism will further hinder trade.
“The shift toward protectionist policies globally is seen as a growing risk for international commerce,” Wohlrabe added.
The survey noted that confidence fell sharply in both the automotive and chemical sectors. This decline is particularly concerning given the strong trade ties between Germany and the US, which was Berlin’s largest trading partner in 2024 with bilateral trade reaching €253 billion ($280 billion). Germany also recorded a €17.7 billion trade surplus with the US in the first quarter of 2025—the highest of any trading partner.
Experts warn that the tariff uncertainty is causing companies to postpone investments, worsening the export outlook. The figures come as Germany struggles to recover from last year’s recession. Though the economy grew slightly by 0.2% in Q1 2025, weak global demand and trade tensions remain key obstacles.
The gloomy Ifo report follows a similar warning from the International Monetary Fund, which recently cut Germany’s 2025 growth forecast to zero, predicting it will be the only G7 country not to expand this year.
Legal Disclaimer:
EIN Presswire provides this news content "as is" without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.
